Connect with us

Doge News

BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, ADA, DOGE, MATIC, DOT, LTC, AVAX

Published

on


The United States producer price index (PPI) fell 0.5% for the month, which was much more than the 0.1% decline estimated by economists surveyed by Dow Jones. The largest monthly decline since April 2020 was also aided by a sharp drop in energy prices. 

Another report showed that the retail sales data dropped 1.1% in December, a tad bit more than the anticipated 1% decrease.

Although both data points show inflation is cooling off, the U.S. stock markets failed to hold on to their initial gains. Similarly, several cryptocurrencies sold off from their intraday highs, indicating that traders may have booked profits ahead of the Federal Reserve’s meeting on Feb. 1.

Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360

The strong crypto recovery in the past few days has seen traders return to the fore. Bitcoin’s (BTC) trading volume soared 114% over seven days. Strong volume accompanied by a sharp rise in prices usually indicates aggressive buying by the bulls. This increases the likelihood that Bitcoin’s November low at $15,476 may not be breached.

How far could Bitcoin and altcoins correct and what are the important support levels to keep an eye on? Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.

BTC/USDT

Bitcoin rose above the overhead resistance of $21,480 on Jan. 17 and Jan. 18 but the bulls could not sustain the higher levels as seen from the long wick on the candlesticks. This shows that the bears are protecting the level.

BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The failure to sustain above the overhead resistance may attract profit-booking by short-term traders. That could start a short-term correction in the BTC/USDT pair. The first strong support is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of $19,489.

If the price springs back from this level, it will suggest that shallow dips are attracting buyers. The bulls will then again attempt to thrust the price above $21,480. If they succeed, the pair could start the next leg of the up-move to $25,000.

This bullish view could be invalidated if the price continues lower and breaks below the 20-day exponential moving average ($18,865).

ETH/USDT

The $1,600 level in Ether (ETH) has proven to be a formidable resistance for the bulls. Although buyers managed to break above this resistance, they could not achieve a close above it.

ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The ETH/USDT pair could start a pullback that could reach the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of $1,439 and then the 20-day EMA ($1,400).

This zone could entice buyers who may have missed the bus previously. That could result in a retest of the $1,600 resistance. If this level is scaled on a closing basis, the pair could soar to $1,800 and then make a dash to $2,000.

If bears want to invalidate this positive view, they will have to pull the price back below the 20-day EMA.

BNB/USDT

BNB (BNB) retreated from the overhead resistance of $318 on Jan. 14 and reached the 20-day EMA ($280) on Jan. 18. Buyers bought this dip with vigor as seen from the long tail on the day’s candlestick.

BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

Buyers will try to build upon this momentum and catapult the price above the overhead resistance at $318. If they manage to do that, the BNB/USDT pair could march toward $338. The bears may mount a strong defense at this level but if bulls clear this hurdle, the pair could skyrocket to $400.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price breaks below the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the pair may oscillate inside the large range between $250 and $338 for a while longer.

XRP/USDT

XRP (XRP) turned down and slipped to the moving averages on Jan. 18 but the long tail on the candlestick indicates aggressive buying at lower levels.

XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The moving averages have completed a bullish crossover and the RSI is in the positive zone, indicating that bulls could prevail. A break and close above $0.42 could start an up-move that may hit the overhead resistance at $0.51. This level may again attract selling but if bulls pierce this resistance, the rally could stretch to $0.56.

If bears want to prevent the bulls from launching the price higher, they will have to pull and sustain the XRP/USDT pair back below the moving averages.

ADA/USDT

Cardano (ADA) has formed a bullish flag trading pattern in the past few days. If buyers propel the price above the flag, it will point to a possible resumption of the up-move.

ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The ADA/USDT pair could first surge to $0.44 and thereafter to the psychologically crucial level of $0.50. Such a move will suggest that the downtrend may have ended.

The bears may not want that to happen. They will try to pull the price below the flag. If they manage to do that, the pair could slump to the 20-day EMA ($0.31). If the price rebounds off this level with strength, buyers will again try to overcome the obstacle at $0.37.

Conversely, a break below the moving averages could tilt the advantage back in favor of the bears.

DOGE/USDT

Dogecoin’s (DOGE) recovery faced rejection near $0.09 on Jan. 14 and again on Jan. 18, which shows that the bears have not given up and are active at higher levels.

DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bears pulled the price below the moving averages on Jan. 18 but have failed to sustain the lower levels. The gradually rising 20-day EMA ($0.08) and the RSI in the positive zone indicate that bulls have a slight edge. Buyers will try to kick the price above $0.09 and start the northward march toward $0.11.

On the contrary, if the price closes below the moving averages, the DOGE/USDT pair could tumble to the critical support at $0.07.

MATIC/USDT

Buyers again tried to thrust Polygon (MATIC) above the overhead resistance of $1.05 on Jan. 16 but the bears held their ground.

MATIC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The repeated failure to clear the overhead hurdle may tempt the short-term traders to book profits. If that happens, the MATIC/USDT pair could slump to the 20-day EMA ($0.90). Such a move will suggest that the pair may extend its stay inside the large range between $0.69 and $1.05 for some more time.

Alternatively, if the price turns up and pops above $1.05, it will signal the start of a new up-move. The pair could then rally to $1.30.

Related: Ethereum price technicals hint at 35% gains versus Bitcoin in 2023

LTC/USDT

Litecoin’s (LTC) up-move faltered near $91 on Jan. 14 and the bears pulled the price back to the 20-day EMA ($80) on Jan. 18. Buyers are trying to protect the level as seen from the long tail on the day’s candlestick.

LTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The upsloping 20-day EMA and the RSI in the positive zone indicate a mild advantage to buyers. If the price turns up and climbs above $91, the LTC/USDT pair could soar to $100 and then to $107.

On the other hand, if the price slides below the 20-day EMA, the pair could reach the breakout level of $75. This is an important level for the bulls to defend because if this support cracks, the pair could plunge to $65.

DOT/USDT

Polkadot (DOT) has been trading near the downtrend line for the past few days, indicating a tussle between the bulls and the bears for supremacy.

DOT/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The 20-day EMA ($5.24) has started to turn up and the RSI is near the overbought territory indicating the path of least resistance is to the upside. If buyers drive the price above $6.53, the DOT/USDT pair could pick up momentum and travel to $7.42 and thereafter to $8.05.

Contrarily, if the price turns down and slips below $5.60, it will signal that bears are trying to make a comeback. The sellers will come out on top if they manage to sink the pair below the moving averages.

AVAX/USDT

Avalanche (AVAX) skyrocketed above the downtrend line on Jan. 11, indicating a potential trend change. The bears have not yet given up as they are trying to stall the up-move at $18.54.

AVAX/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The upsloping 20-day EMA ($14.42) indicates advantage to buyers but the RSI in the overbought zone suggests a few days of consolidation or a minor correction in the short term.

If the price turns down and breaks below $15.50, the AVAX/USDT pair could drop to the 20-day EMA. This is an important level to keep an eye on because a bounce off it could increase the likelihood of a rally to $20.63. The bears will gain the upper hand if the pair plummets below the 20-day EMA.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.



Source link

Continue Reading
Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Doge News

Do Dogecoin’s (DOGE) and Shiba Inu’s (SHIB) stalled rallies mean the memecoin trend is dead?

Published

on

Do Dogecoin’s (DOGE) and Shiba Inu’s (SHIB) stalled rallies mean the memecoin trend is dead?


The memecoin phenomenon didn’t prove as effective in the last month’s start of year crypto market rally, as the gains of the top cryptocurrencies in this category barely outperformed Bitcoin. The monthly gain of BTC stood at 44.5%, while the top two meme-based coins DOGE and SHIB gained 27% and 40.7%, respectively.

Top meme-coins by total market capitalizations. Source: CoinMarketCap

Doge needs a market moving catalyst

Dogecoin is losing its popularity as its most prominent supporter Elon Musk is reportedly developing an independent Twitter Coin instead of integrating his favorite cryptocurrency with the social media platform owned by the entrepreneur.

For the greater part of 2022, DOGE/USD performed poorly except for when Elon Musk acquired Twitter. The acquisition raised hopes in the Dogecoin community about increased cryptocurrency usage.

However, without any tangible announcements or reports from Twitter hinting at Dogecoin usage, the 100% price surge from October 2022 reversed in the following two months. The Google search volume for the token has also subsided since Q1 2022.

Dogecoin is losing its popularity as its most prominent supporter Elon Musk is reportedly developing an independent Twitter Coin instead of integrating his favorite cryptocurrency with the social media platform owned by the entrepreneur.

For the greater part of 2022, DOGE/USD performed poorly except for when Elon Musk acquired Twitter. The acquisition raised hopes in the Dogecoin community about increased cryptocurrency usage.

However, without any tangible announcements or reports from Twitter hinting at Dogecoin usage, the 100% price surge from October 2022 reversed in the following two months. The Google search volume for the token has also subsided since Q1 2022.

The NVT ratio for Dogecoin. Source: Coinmetrics
Google trends score for “Dogecoin” and “Shiba Inu” Source: Google Trends

Another factor influencing the price of DOGE last year was the launch of Dogechain. An EVM-compatible blockchain that uses DOGE as the gas-paying token. However, Dogechain failed to gain user traction, becoming a place mainly for “shitcoin” trading. Currently, less than 1% of DOGE is bridged on Dogechain.

Lastly, the on-chain data for Dogecoin suggests that the price may be overpriced. The Network Value to Transaction Value (NVT) ratio metric is a price-to-earning ratio equivalent for the cryptocurrency markets. The metric measures the ratio of the market capitalization of the token against its transaction volume. Higher transaction volume compared to the market value corresponds to low NVT readings.

Coinmetrics’ historic NVT chart of Dogecoin suggests that the token could be overpriced. For the last eight years, the NFT ratio has oscillated between 10 and 100, with a few outliers during bull markets. Dogecoin’s NVT metric hasn’t tapped the bottom of its long-term range since mid-2021, which exposes it to more downside risk.

The NVT ratio for Dogecoin. Source: Coinmetrics

The internet’s first and most favorite meme coin would require a catalyst like a tweet from Elon Musk, or drastic change in the token’s tokenomics or fundamentals to revive a positive run in the short-term.

DOGE/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

Dogecoin has been trading in a range between $0.07 and $0.19 since June 2019. A breakout from the range could see continued momentum in the direction of the breakout. 

Related: Rumor has it that Dogecoin could shift to proof-of-stake

Shiba Inu’s brand building strategy may not be enough

Like Dogecoin, the weakening meme coin narrative affected the buying strength of Shiba Inu. The second largest meme coin has been working on enhancing the brand value of Shiba Inu by forming partnerships with clothing brands like Bugatti Group and English designer John Richmond.

The Google Trend score of Shiba Inu shows a similar depressing pattern since early 2022 as Dogecoin, with no spikes in search volume since the crypto bull mania of 2021 subsided in Q1 2022.

Like Dogecoin, the Shiba community also has an independent blockchain, Shibarium, which is owned by the Shiba community. However, the blockchain’s gas-paying token is BONE instead of SHIB, which brings no real value to the token holders of SHIB.

The total balance of SHIB on crypto exchanges jumped earlier in January, which is a negative sign, exposing the token to more sell-offs. On the contrary, the smart money wallets identified by Nansen increased their holdings slightly on Jan. 25, which may add some strength to the recent rally.

Token balance on exchanges. Source: Nansen 

On a weekly time-frame, the token is trading between $0.00000825 and $0.00001794. A breakout from this range will likely see a strong move in the direction of the breakout. The midpoint of the range at $0.00001200 is also acting as a resistance level for buyers. 

SHIB/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

While the top meme tokens have seen fading momentum, Floki Inu and Solana’s BONK token had impressive runs in January thanks to an SOL price rise and tokenomics improvement with Floki Inu. The Floki community voted to burn $100 million worth of FLOKI tokens, which nearly doubled its price on Jan. 29. 

Generally, it appears that the meme coin phenomenon from 2021 has lost its steam considerably. While the meme coins are moving with the rest of the market, their performance has been average. Improvements in the projects by the team or community have become essential to push these tokens back up.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.



Source link

Continue Reading

Doge News

Rumor has it that Dogecoin could shift to proof-of-stake — What does that mean for miners?

Published

on

Rumor has it that Dogecoin could shift to proof-of-stake — What does that mean for miners?



There are rumors that Dogecoin could switch from proof-of-work to proof-of-stake (PoS). 

Do I know if Dogecoin is switching to PoS?

No.

Do I think it’s going to PoS? Probably not.

But I love the “what if” game.

As a person who works in the crypto mining industry, I do my best to gauge where the market and mining industry are going, along with how that could play out. If Dogecoin makes a change to PoS or some other change to how new blocks are created, it would have massive ramifications for the mining industry.

Here’s a look at a few options and their effects.

Scrypt mining could be devastated

I’m not going to debate whether or not Dogecoin will or should switch to PoS. While it’s hard to determine if the recent rumors about the potential for a switch are true or not, they were enough to have Bitmain supposedly pause Litecoin (LTC) and Dogecoin (DOGE) miner manufacturing.

The larger question in my mind is, What happens to miners if Dogecoin switches to PoS?

First, Scrypt mining would be devastated. DOGE accounts for over 60% of the revenue with Scrypt mining. Take it away, and every L3+, every LT6 and every Mini Doge Pro, literally almost every non-L7 miner not connected to $0.04-per-kilowatt-hour electricity would need to be unplugged immediately.

Network difficulty would likely bounce all over the place for some time, while miners with older equipment struggle with the decision to keep their ASICSs on or turn them off. The apex Scrypt miner, Bitmain’s Antminer L7, would see its profitability reduced by nearly 75%, reducing profits to a whopping $4.83/day at $0.05/kWh.

What about the miners that don’t have an industrial electric rate? At $0.10/kWh, the L7 9050M, which sold for around $9,000 a few weeks ago, would earn you $0.72/day.

Yikes!

A drastic change like this would result in those who had recently purchased an L7 being very unlikely to ever recover their investment, let alone generate any profits.

ASIC manufacturers would be forced to drop prices, further impacting their bottom line

The vastly reduced profitability would inevitably lead to the price of the L7 dropping quicker than it did during the COVID-19-induced crypto crash. Pricing miners solely by their expected ROI time, at $5 a day profit, miners would be looking at the L7 having a price tag between $1,825 (12-month ROI) and $2,737.50 (18-month ROI). This reflects a minimum price reduction of nearly 70%.

How quickly would Bitmain react? Would they gradually reduce prices week after week similar to what Goldshell has done with many of its miners over the past few months? A strategy that repeatedly left a sour taste in the mouths of customers as they watched the price of the miner they just spent thousands of dollars on being slashed repeatedly.

Or would they come out and continue their recent trend of pricing miners fairly?

ASIC resellers would also bear the brunt of the negative consequences connected to a PoS shift by Dogecoin. Many L7 miners are suppliers, and retailers sitting on that would instantly need to be marked down by a substantial amount. However, based on their recent history of price-gouging customers, like charging $60,000 for a KD6 that is barely worth over $1,000 today, it’s doubtful many tears would be shed for them.

Many home miners would flood eBay and similar platforms with Scrypt miners. It would be a race to the bottom as desperate miners attempt to recoup whatever value is left in the hunk of metal that can now only be used as a doorstop or display piece if one is desperate.

Litecoin mining would survive. Those L7s would stay on because they’d still be somewhat profitable, and there really wouldn’t be another choice. It’s doubtful that the market would see a new Scrypt miner that could challenge the L7 to be developed anytime soon unless there already is a more efficient Scrypt miner in development. There are some rumors that Bitmain is working on a miner that would surpass the L7.

That’s a lot of disruption from the move to PoS, and we’ve only looked at one aspect of the crypto ecosystem. Numerous other questions and scenarios would need to be considered.

What would happen to network security?

Would the yield from staking cause DOGE to eventually be labeled a security?

Would Dogecoin be lauded for the change, or would the masses flee from what is now the second-largest PoW coin by market cap?

Now for my favorite what if. This option is unlikely, maybe even impossible, but there are different ways it could play out.

What if Dogecoin breaks away from merge-mining with LTC and creates its own mining algorithm?

Related: Dogecoin Foundation announces new fund for core developers

Innovation and competition are healthy for every industry

What if there’s a GPU mining renaissance? After the Ethereum Merge event, there’s a ton of really cheap GPUs available on the market. Those would get expensive really quickly. Mining purists would rejoice as they build their own mining rigs while trying to figure out how much DOGE they can stack. It really would be cool to see, but it wouldn’t last. The big three manufacturers — Bitmain, Goldshell and iBelink — would scramble to be the first to market with an ASIC miner.

Eventually, they’d each have at least one ASIC miner on the market, and naturally, they’ll get more powerful and more efficient over time. The jumps and increases in difficulty would be ridiculous, and just like with Bitcoin (BTC), it will eventually no longer be profitable to mine DOGE with GPUs. But it could also open the door to something the ASIC manufacturing market desperately needs: competition.

What if, following the short-lived GPU mining renaissance, a door opens for another manufacturer or manufacturers to enter the market? Currently, Bitmain, Goldshell and iBelink are the “big three,” and it’s really Bitmain that has a total stranglehold on the market. So, while it’s likely Bitmain would come out on top, what if there’s someone out there who can be first to market and maintain that lead and establish itself as a credible and reliable ASIC manufacturer?

What if that company decided to branch out into other miners and offer them fair prices? To be fair, we do have to commend Bitmain again for the pricing on its recent rollout of industry-altering miners. Reseller markups are still an issue, but that’s another topic. Perhaps this “new” competitor would adhere to the mantra that customer service actually matters. If customers could get over the reliability concerns and the company built a good product, that could happen. Admittedly, that’s a lot of what-ifs.

Alternatively, there’s a money-grab scenario for Dogecoin. The project could go directly to Bitmain, Goldshell and iBelink and say, “We’re creating our own mining algorithm, and we’ll give it to you and you alone. How much money will you give us?”

What would Goldshell pay to bring life back to a company that has taken a series of body blows from the recent altcoin miners released by Bitmain? Or would iBelink go all out to win the rights to make the miner? IBelink just released a new BM-K3 Kadena miner that boasts 70 terahashes — a nearly 75% increase over the next closest model — and it can’t celebrate because Bitmain is about to trump that with the new KA3 that brings 166 THs. In the case of a Dogecoin offer to ASIC manufacturers, how much would Bitmain pay to maintain its market dominance?

No change could be a good thing

What if DOGE chooses to simply continue with Scrypt mining?

The status quo is not that exciting, but it seems to be the most likely outcome. Sure, there may be some changes that will pass a vote, but Dogecoin will most likely continue to be merge-mined with LTC on the Scrypt algorithm.

Bitmain is likely to continue pushing out L7 inventory before launching a more efficient Scrypt miner later this year AND Goldshell will launch a Mini Doge Pro 2 for home miners that will essentially be two Mini Doge Pros in one box. The upcoming LTC halving, along with the more efficient miners, will probably push several older models to shut down for good.

Crypto markets will go up, and crypto markets will go down. There will likely be some other crypto scandal that no one sees coming that will look incredibly obvious in hindsight. The sun will come up, and the sun will come down. Of course, most suppliers and especially resellers will continue to markup miners and squeeze everything they can out of regular customers.

It’s impossible to know what’s going to happen with Dogecoin in the future, but crypto is one of the few industries where anything can happen on any given day.

Regardless of whether Dogecoin switches to PoS, the crypto mining landscape has always changed rapidly, and Scrypt mining is no different.

Change is coming.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.



Source link

Continue Reading

Doge News

Reformed ‘altcoin slayer’ Eric Wall on shitposting and scaling Ethereum – Cointelegraph Magazine

Published

on


Although he’s had a variety of jobs in the industry, including a stint as Arcane Asset’s chief investment officer, Eric Wall is probably best known for shitposting and arguing with people on Crypto Twitter.

“Just like any other person, I’m scrolling my Twitter feed, and then you see people saying dumb shit that is incorrect, and that is based on a lie. And then I just argue with that person, and then those arguments lead to long-form Medium articles,” he says with just a faint trace of a Swedish accent.

“I’m just trying to correct ‘incorrectness’ in the space.”

He’s been working on a super-secret project ever since he left Arcane early last year, so he doesn’t have an official title apart from “blockchain researcher” and board member for Ethereum scaling solution the StarkNet Foundation.

After arguing with people for years for free, more recently, Wall has been attempting to make money from challenging antagonists to a bet and has also (semi-literally) begun collecting the skulls of his enemies. “That has been paying off in tungsten cubes and actual money,” he says.

“There’s multiple cryptocurrency communities who have me as their favorite hate object basically. They want to put you in your place. And they have all sorts of idiotic ideas.”

Eric is the “prime antagonist” for Richard Heart and Hex. Source: Twitter

Wall recently moved to Portugal from Sweden, attracted by the crypto-friendly regulation and the lifestyle — and for safety reasons, after the next most prominent crypto future in Sweden was physically attacked in an attempt to steal his crypto. He explains the tax system there is so transparent that anyone can look up your net wealth. “If you combine that with the fact you know they’re into crypto, and it’s very easy to pick out targets in Sweden,” he says.

Wall says he paid for the rent on his new flat through the hatred of HEXicans. He’s been at loggerheads with the HEX community since 2019 when founder Richard Heart explained the scheme to him. In February last year, he made a bet with HEXican Dixon Piper that HEX — then trading at $0.18 — wouldn’t reach a new all-time high by February 2023.

While he hasn’t won yet (but almost certainly will, given HEX’s current price), after HEX plunged to $0.04, he was able to hedge the bet and lock in a profit of $16,000 to pay for his apartment in Lisbon.

“I have this place now with just the most amazing view that I’ve ever seen in my life. I see the entire Portuguese coast from that window, from that balcony. I can have these HEXicans telling me how stupid I am while looking at that view.”

Similarly, he bet Blockstream CEO Adam Back that PlanB’s “floor model” was going to be wrong — which it was. “So, Adam had to pay up a tungsten cube with his face engraved into the cube,” he says. He won another bet against Bitcoin Magazine’s CK Snarks that the Ethereum Merge really would happen in 2022.

His plan is to build up a collection of 20 tungsten cubes with the faces of his vanquished foes so that people think twice about arguing. “You’re going to be pretty intimidated,” he says. “Do you want to be the next face in this collection?”

Bitcoin maxi to mini

Wall is a recovering Bitcoin maximalist who was once known as the “altcoin slayer” for his brutal takedowns of altcoins during the era of ICOs. One of the most qualified critics in the space — he literally wrote his Master’s thesis about blockchain — he can zero in on technological issues and communicate those problems effectively to less technical members of the crypto community.

Back when he was pointing out that most ICO altcoins were centralized shitcoins with myriad security issues, he was a hero to Bitcoiners. But ever since he started busting myths about Ethereum and suggesting that Bitcoin was being left behind by smart contracts, scaling and NFTs, they’ve liked him much less.

As you have no doubt gathered, Wall goes to great lengths to prove he is correct and once spent a month downloading an Ethereum node purely to bust the Bitcoiner myth that it took 8 terabytes of data to fully validate transactions.

“It was extremely difficult, but it was possible, and it didn’t take 8 terabytes of space on the hard drive.”

One of the big reasons for the shift from maxi to mini (he’s still a proponent of Bitcoin) is that Wall has been fascinated for years with building decentralized finance on an open and permissionless settlement layer. That was the essential subject of his thesis, and the need for decentralization to bring it about was only reinforced by seeing the limitations of permissioned blockchain platforms while working for Cinnober and Nasdaq. So, he was naturally drawn to the DeFi sector on Ethereum when it began to emerge in 2019.

That same year, it became clear that Ethereum and other blockchains could scale using zk-Rollups or optimistic fraud proofs, whereas Bitcoin had “almost entirely abandoned” the idea of doing anything with DeFi. So, he got behind DeFi on Ethereum.

“That made me fall out of favor with Bitcoin maximalists because I was their golden kid: the one that was supposed to slay the altcoins, not one that was supposed to say actually, there is a use case here though, and this system actually does scale, and it’s not as bad as you think.”

Eric Wall
Eric Wall. Source: LinkedIn

“So, then I had to change Bitcoiners’ understanding of the Ethereum system because they were now the ones that were spreading false facts about how the system works.”

He concedes his former Bitcoiner friends think he’s become a “shitcoiner for financial motives.” But Wall also wants to scale Bitcoin, too, and is involved in a research project with StarkNet and the Human Rights Foundation to investigate how to apply zk-Rollup scaling to Bitcoin, pondering “what the benefits of that would be and how feasible it is.”

“So, I am working on that, on trying to introduce that system and those technological benefits to Bitcoin.”

What’s behind the Wall?

Wall was born in 1991 in the Swedish city of Linköping and spent a gap year after high school traveling through Australia and Norway, working odd jobs from a deckhand on a luxury yacht to a “chugger” (charity mugger).

He studied computer engineering at Lund University, and his time there was notable for his organizational efforts as the “funmaker” of “Sweden Silent Party,” a series of silent disco events inspired by one the best nights of his life in Byron Bay. He also became one of the first Scandinavian engineers to write a Master’s thesis about using blockchain to run a securities exchange in conjunction with local fintech Cinnober.

Eric Wall organized silent discos while at Uni
Eric Wall organized silent discos while at university. Source: Lund University

He was introduced to Bitcoin in his first year of university in 2011 by a classmate who showed him an article about darknet marketplace Silk Road. Buying Bitcoin at the time for $4 was a week-long process that required wiring money to Mt. Gox in Japan, so he gave up. A year later, Bitcoin had doubled to $8, and he thought he’d “missed the boat.” “But I became interested in this asset that increased 100% in one year” and saw an opportunity to “get an edge” in a totally new asset class. He lost everything in Mt. Gox but gained a new career as a blockchain researcher and, later, blockchain lead at Cinnober.

During his time there, and later at Nasdaq, he realized that companies or even countries weren’t going to agree to create the sort of infrastructure required to build a genuinely decentralized, cross-jurisdictional system for the settlement of securities.

“It needs to be something that the Chinese and the Japanese and the U.S. can use as a mutual system,” he says. “But that was a gargantuan task. That’s never going to happen from the inside. I understood that later. It has to be a system that comes from the outside and keeps growing.” The only likely candidates were Bitcoin and Ethereum. 

He told his bosses to put a hold on the enterprise blockchain stuff and to instead sell their incredibly fast matching engine tech to the big crypto exchanges. His colleagues thought crypto was a game or a joke — until Bitstamp turned up in a private jet.

“Even big stock exchange teams didn’t spend that kind of money on a meeting with Cinnober,” he says. “Then they actually did take it seriously, and we did deliver a solution to them.” 

Read also

Features

Meet Dmitry: Co-founder of Ethereum’s creator Vitalik Buterin

Features

The Vitalik I know: Dmitry Buterin

Media crypto commentator

During this time, he also became the Swedish media’s go-to guy for crypto commentary. He was determined to seize the opportunity but hated the stressful, anxiety-inducing process of appearing on live TV, so he’d load up on valium to get through it. 

“Then everything was fine. It didn’t matter like getting a big camera in my face. I was completely zoned out,” he says.

Eric sometimes adopts the persona of the slightly nicer Erica Wall online
Eric sometimes adopts the persona of the slightly nicer Erica Wall online. Source: Twitter

“But because I was so into crypto, I was doing crypto 17 hours a day. Even in that state, I could still articulate and explain everything about Bitcoin and what was going on even if I was only half conscious.”

It was a similar story at crypto conferences, where Wall’s ingrained Swedish standoffishness made the hundreds of brief interactions he had as a well-known figure quite stressful.

“For them, they only get, like, five seconds with me on an escalator, and that’s how they’re going to remember me for years. So, I always feel like I want to deliver on that interaction. Which makes me feel a lot of pressure.”

He’s stopped taking meds these days after realizing he was meeting the same people multiple times at conferences and forgetting them.

“I have realized that now, at this point, like, I’m gonna just be natural. I think I feel comfortable. I’ve overcome my Swedishness eventually.”

Nasdaq takeover

Cinnober was eventually taken over by Nasdaq in early 2019 for $190 million, and Wall found himself in a massive bureaucratic organization with little agency and lots of rules.

“After Nasdaq acquired, they told us, well, ‘The great thing about Nasdaq is you’re never gonna have more than six bosses above…’ It’s a very flat organization,” he says with dry humor. “Every tweet that I wrote had to go through the Nasdaq approval department.”

At the time, Wall was fighting with multiple token projects online about their hyped claims. “I thought that I was doing something very important,” he explains. One notable conflict, still running today, was with the Iota founders after he argued in a 2017 Medium post saying the protocol does not provide any censorship resistance and is centralized around the Iota foundation’s coordinator node.

Unfortunately, Iota was also being considered by the Swedish Central Bank to help create a central bank digital currency, so Wall’s online antics were not considered politically helpful.

“People were lying about what their technology could do, and you still had to treat them as respected industry participants, which I wasn’t going to do. So, I didn’t ask for permission from Nasdaq to tweet, and it ended up with us going our separate ways.”

Arcane Assets

Wall then decided the best way to participate in the blockchain revolution was to participate in the economy, “So, I changed strategy and became a hedge fund manager,” he says.

It’s quite the leap from engineer to trader, and Wall tried and abandoned a variety of approaches. Initially, he learned technical analysis, using rules-based trading around indicators like Bollinger Bands and moving average convergence/divergence. But after writing an algorithm to backtest the rules, he realized they performed no better than random chance. Similarly, he thinks most charts and models are ludicrous, which is why he constantly jokes about the superiority of the Rainbow Chart (“has emoji”).

Then he moved on to investigating the technological fundamentals of projects to guide investment decisions, only to see his returns totally dwarfed by people who invested based on what the logo looked like. He’s since settled on a new approach to trading: Work out what unsophisticated investors will buy in the future and buy it first.

“The price is driven by just social factors. Basically, there’s no fundamentals,” he explains. “When I go out and I write some articles about a particular technology component in some cryptocurrency that undermines the whole value proposition, that’s a completely different thought process than the investment process. The investment process is just about, well, are people going to buy it?”

But having to explain to his serious hedge fund bosses that he was buying tokens because he thought the masses would buy any old token with a dog on it, was tricky.

“That was one of the things that I didn’t like so much. These are regulated, traditional ‘we run a pretty posh hedge fund that took capital from institutional level investors’ and they don’t want to hear: ‘Well, people like the dog picture.’ But that’s how the market works.”

He recalls investigating whether investing based on the viral growth of crypto hashtags on TikTok could be a path to riches, but the fund wouldn’t give the strategy the go-ahead. Instead, Arcane insisted he invest based on rules and a checklist “to make it an institutional-grade crypto fund that avoided all the bullshit.”

“Problem is if you avoid all the bullshit, you avoid most of the profit.”

So, again, Wall found himself chafing at the requirements of working for a big organization.

“I think I’m like a degen in my blood. I think that the cryptocurrency space moves extremely fast, and you have to be as nimble as the space is. If the market one day says ‘Okay, but screw all the technology — we’re trading pictures of monkeys now,’ you have to make the decision extremely fast that monkeys is what it is all about.”

“So, if I’m going to do something else, now it’s going to be somewhere where the mandate is completely open.”

He handed in his resignation in the first quarter of 2022 to work on a super-secret project that he’s yet to reveal even a year on.

“I’m now in the process of doing something else that hasn’t been announced yet,” is all he’ll reveal. 

Read also

Art Week

Coldie And Citadel 6.15: The Creator, The Collector, The Curator

Features

The trouble with automated market makers

Andrew Fenton

Andrew Fenton

Based in Melbourne, Andrew Fenton is a journalist and editor covering cryptocurrency and blockchain. He has worked as a national entertainment writer for News Corp Australia, on SA Weekend as a film journalist, and at The Melbourne Weekly.





Source link

Continue Reading

Trending

WP Twitter Auto Publish Powered By : XYZScripts.com